Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Austin anymore*

  

 

On May 12th we set out on a mini-trip that ended up lasting six days. The first big destination was Monahans Sandhills State Park, which we could have gone to by late afternoon on the first day. By then the temperature had already climbed above 90°, so prudence dictated postponing the visit till the next morning. In contrast to the large traces wrought by the wind in the top picture, look below at the tiny tracks a beetle was leaving.

 

  

 

* The title’s a takeoff on a line from the movie The Wizard of Oz.

 

 

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The deficit totals $1.6 trillion in fiscal year 2024, grows to $1.8 trillion in 2025, and then returns to $1.6 trillion by 2027. Thereafter, deficits steadily mount, reaching $2.6 trillion in 2034. Measured in relation to gross domestic product (GDP), the deficit amounts to 5.6 percent in 2024, grows to 6.1 percent in 2025, and then shrinks to 5.2 percent in 2027 and 2028. After 2028, deficits climb as a percentage of GDP, returning to 6.1 percent in 2034. Since the Great Depression, deficits have exceeded that level only during and shortly after World War II, the 2007–2009 financial crisis, and the corona­virus pandemic.

Debt held by the public increases from 99 percent of GDP at the end of 2024 to 116 percent of GDP—the highest level ever recorded—by the end of 2034. After 2034, debt would continue to grow if current laws generally remained unchanged.

 

The Congressional Budget Office issued that scary projection in February. This year, paying just the interest on the country’s enormous debt—which gets us nothing at all for the money—will amount to 3.1% of gross domestic product, which will exceed the 3.0% spent on defense.

The country is headed for disaster unless we change course.

 

© 2024 Steven Schwartzman